Practically Slightly Heavy

(FRI) February 27th, 2026

8:31 p.m. Looks like Lebensstil and Cervinia both drew inner posts, which are basically advantaged in Nakayama Kinen. But these two probably don't like to have other horses around, so they'd both be happy if the turf condition turns out soft to give them more space around them especially, when the pace drops to slow.

According to the latest turf condition of Nakayama annunced by JRA, although it's said to be "firm" as of 10:30 Friday morning, the moisture content before the finish line is 13.4% while the turf's moisture at fourth corner was measured to be 13.5%. This means that the turf condition is practically slightly heavy or in other words, good to firm.

I wonder how much the moisture content would dry off by Sunday? If the softness remains, runaways, front runners starting from inner posts will be advantaged. If not, chances will expand for horses that can finish the closing 3 furlongs faster. Either way, the safest choice I believe, would be front runners that can finish the last three furlongs in a relatively high speed.

The End

Caterpillar