Sprinters' Stakes And Prix de l'Arc

(SAT) October 1st, 2016

3:34 p.m. I think the key to winning the Sprinters' Stakes is to guess right which horse takes the lead. If Big Arthur can take the lead, he might be able to win like his previous race. But taking the lead from wire to wire usually leaves big damage on the horse. That's not hard to see without even referring to the example of A Shin Hikari. In order to win a G1, the theory is to wrap up the prep race in a easy win. Personally, I think Centaur Stakes was an easy win for Big Arthur, but the damage can't be denied. In such cases, it must be better to keep the horse on the 2nd or 3rd place of a trifecta, rather than the 1st, although front runners usually tend to sink far below when they can't win. The rider Fukunaga, also backs up this idea. If you're buying a trio, no worries, just key the horse.

The other horses to put on the wheel should be horses that couldn't perform quite well in their come back races from recess, I reckon, and yet not so bad as to show signs of fatigue. That'd be, Blanc Bonheur, Solveig, Bel Canto, Red Falx and Mickey Isle, just in case. Might add Let's Go Donki and Snow Dragon for 3rd place, though that's about it.

As for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, it was good for Makahiki to draw an outer post for reasons I've already mentioned. His condition seems good as far as I can tell, so there's a big chance he'd come within 3rd place or even win. If some other horse should beat him, that would probably be young horses with the same or lighter weight, cutting in on the inside.

The End

Caterpillar